If Michelle Runs, Biden Is Toast
Democratic pundits have been asking the wrong question when they wonder if Biden will run for a second term. The correct question is: Will Michelle Obama run?
If she does run, Biden likely can’t beat her and would be forced out of the race. With barely a mention of a Michelle candidacy, she runs a strong second to Biden in John McLaughlin’s poll of likely Democratic primary voters nationwide.
That survey has Michelle nipping at Biden’s heels with 14% of the vote while the president draws only 25% of the vote in his own party primary. Twenty other Democrats split the remaining 61% of the vote. Never has there been a president so weak in his own party’s primaries.
Biden can’t run if Michelle does. Former President Obama has been something between the architect of Biden’s presidency and its puppeteer. He has designed Biden’s programs, political decisions, and has put his people in all key administration jobs. Former Chief of Staff Ron Klain’s departure eliminates the main non-Obama force in the Biden White House.
Biden well realizes that be was consigned to the scrap heap of the Democratic Party, on his way to losing for the third time, when Obama swooped down to rescue him by arranging for Congressman James Clyburn (D-SC) to back Biden after he lost the first three primaries decisively. With Super Tuesday only three days later, President Obama’s support for Biden got him nominated.
As if to emphasize his ongoing domination of Biden, Obama has jiggered the Democratic primary schedule to assure that reliable South Carolina (27% black — and even higher in a Democratic primary) leads the 2024 nominating process. And to drive home the point, he has Georgia its 32% black voters and Michigan with 15% coming next.
And forget about Kamala Harris. McLaughlin’s poll found her with only 16% of the vote in a Democratic Primary without Biden in the race. Michele was right behind her with 15%.
Were Michele to run, there is only one potential Democratic candidate with sufficient star power to face her: Hillary Clinton. Only she could match Michelle’s profile and hope to stop her bandwagon.
While Hillary would have a good shot at beating Michele, Biden would have none. His own record of support for race-based preferences for blacks would make it almost impossible to find running room in a contest.
But Hillary could find plenty. While the Democratic Party has become the black party, it’s white, Asian, and Latino voters have not lost their minds or their power. Hillary would be able to trip Michelle up by posing the right issues.
• Even Democrats do not want to see California’s reparations plan for formerly enslaved families awarding each millions in cash, housing credits, scholarships and job preferences that would not be available to white, Asian, or Latino voters.
• While blacks generally support racial preferences in the distribution of federal grant money it is far from clear that the white majority in the Democratic Party would follow suit or that Latino and Asian voters would find a place for them.
• With white Democrats hesitant to embrace the concept of Critical Race Theory that believes in universal white racism and want to teach it in schools, Hillary can appropriate to herself the color-blind policies of Martin Luther King jr. and pose a choice between MLK and CRT.
• Michelle still wears an albatross around her neck from her famous reaction to her husband’s election when she said: “for the first time in my adult lifetime, I am really proud of my country.”
So, Biden’s fate is entirely in Michele Obama’s bands. If she decides to run, Biden is out.
And then the likely course of the Democratic Party will be an epic battle of Obama vs. Hillary 2.0 with Donald Trump waiting in the wings.
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