How The Race Stacks Up From Here

By Dick Morris on March 14, 2012

Romney is on track to win the nomination when the primaries and caucuses are over on June 6th.

Currently, Romney has 498 of the 1,144 he needs to be nominated. He now has 53% of the selected delegates, a clip he has been maintaining since the start of the process. Santorum has 25%, Gingrich 15%, and Paul 7%.

CURRENT DELEGATE COUNT
Romney	498	53%
Santorum	239	25%
Gingrich	139	15%
Paul	69	7%

Romney is very likely to win the following winner-take-all primaries:

LIKELY ROMNEY WINNER TAKE ALL WINS
Puerto Rico	23
DC	19
Maryland	37
Connecticut	28
Delaware	17
Rhode Island	19
Oregon	28
Cal	172
Montana	25
NJ	50
Utah	40
458 + 498 (current Romney) ______________________ 956 TOTAL

In addition, Romney will probably win these winner take all states:

Wisconsin	42
Indiana	46
West Virginia	31
Nebraska	35
South Dakota	28
182 + 956 ______________ 1,138

Finally, Romney will probably do very well in the following proportional representation states. Some, like New York and Illinois, award most of their delegates as a winner take all by Congressional District .

P.R. State Delegates / Prob Romney
New York	95 / 80
Illinois	69 / 45
Maine	24 / 20
New Mexico	23 / 15
160 + 1,138 ______________ 1,298

Needed to Nominate: 1,144

So, even if Romney loses the winner take all primaries in North Carolina and Pennsylvania and gets clobbered in Texas, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, and a few other conservative states, he should win the nomination by the time the primaries are over on June 6th.

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