Don’t Believe The Media Polls: The Race Is Tight
By John Jordan
The media is full of biased polls released for only one reason: To discourage Trump donors and voters.
I have paid for an accurate poll by the top Republican polling organization: Public Opinion Research. It was conducted on October 6-7 in the seventeen battleground states among 1,000 likely voters. Unlike the media polls, its results are accurately weighted at +1 Democrat (the exact result of exit polls in those states in the elections of ’16 and ’18).
It shows Biden ahead by five points. But his lead is almost entirely of voters leaning to him. Among definitely decided voters, Biden is only one ahead.
2020 PRESIDENTIAL VOTE
(In 17 Battleground States — Conducted by Public Opinion Research)
| Definite | Leaners | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | 41 | 9 | 50 |
| Trump | 40 | 5 | 45 |
So Biden is hanging on by the skin of his teeth. Leaners are notoriously fickle and can — and often do — turn on a dime.
Of greater import, the survey finds that the principal impact of the president’s illness has been to elevate the virus to the number one issue in the country, relegating the economy to number two. This is the exact opposite of the situation two weeks ago.
In my poll, 39% say the virus is the top issue while only 29% said it was the economy. Published polls taken two weeks ago showed the economy 14 points ahead of the virus.
Biden is seen as better in dealing with the virus by twelve points while Trump is better on the economy by eight points. It is the elevation of the importance of the virus, not any mistake by Trump, that accounts for Biden’s tenuous lead
And these results come after Trump has had a tough week, to put it mildly. If he is only 5 back, it shows his amazing strength.
The week began with a New York Times hit piece that conflated his pre-payment of taxes with a charge that he avoided paying them.*. Then came the debate where his over-aggressiveness was panned by the media and, combined with Biden’s outrageous conduct calling the president of the United States a “clown,” led to a plague-on-both-your-houses verdict by the voters. Then he got sick and, rather than extend their sympathy like human beings, the media wrote that he deserved to get sick because he didn’t wear a face mask.
And, as a result of his quarantine, he is unable to campaign or hold the rallies that are at the core of his political persona. Finally, because of Biden’s virtual monopoly of Silicon money and 5:1 preponderance of Wall Street funding, he is being outspent on media in battleground states by 2:1.
If, after that, he’s only five back, largely due to leaners, who can doubt that he can gain back that ground.
Here’s what he needs to do:
• Address the nation as a virus-sufferer to emphasize that the virus is not usually a death sentence — 97% survive — and to stress the importance of not cowering in fear in your basement, but the need to go back to work or school and resume your life. My poll showed that 56% admire him for going back to work.
• Urge everyone to wear a face mask because of his personal experience in contracting the virus. My poll says that 76% would support his decision if he said that his personal experience with the virus has led him to wear a face mask and to urge others to do so.
• Slam Pelosi for blocking his proposal to send a $1200 check to every family and to prevent airline layoffs. Demand that Biden endorse sending out the checks.
• By 34-48 voters oppose court packing. Our system of checks and balances is at stake. Trump needs to pound this issue.
• Emphasize that it takes a tough man to run a country through a time of crisis. Explain that sometimes he doesn’t have time to be polite and that he does things his way, but gets them done.
• Get the focus back on the economy where he has a strong advantage.
Even with the race truncated into a three week sprint — with two debates left (perhaps virtual), there is plenty of time.for Trump to come back and win!
For details on the Jordan Poll, go to JohnJordanShow.com. He’s going to be polling every week.
* He overestimated his tax liability in ’15 and ’16 taxes, paying $5200 more than he owed. When he applied that overpayment to his ’16 and 17 taxes, he only had to pay $750 more. The media reported that $750 was all he paid.
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