Current State Of Play
Here’s the rundown:
• Romney leads in all the states McCain carried in 2008 for 179 electoral votes.
• Romney is convincingly ahead in Indiana (10), North Carolina (15), Florida (29), Colorado (9), and Virginia (13) total: 255 needed to win: 270
• Ohio (18): It looks like we are ahead. Rasmussen has us up by two. So do some internal polls. But with the variation in turnout motivation and the undecided going against the incumbent, we should win by more than that.
• Iowa (6) Ditto. Latest polls have us one ahead.
• NH (4) Rasmussen has us up by two but probably more than that given turnout and undecided voters.
• Pennsylvania (20) Our ace in the hole! We are outspending Obama 6:1 here. Partly because of your donations to Super PAC for America (Michael Reagan’s outfit). Give some more! Last night’s poll had us ahead by two in Pennsylvania. If we lose Ohio, Pennsylvania will put us over the top.
• Wisconsin (10) Rasmussen has it tied at 49-49. We have a great organization here that won the recall contest against Gov Walker. I bet we win here. Now the focus of a major Romney effort.
• Minnesota (10) Believe it or not, coming within range. Just a few points behind and a lot of money going in there this weekend.
• Michigan (15) We should be closer here than we are. Lots of new money going in over the weekend, but we have faded a bit here.
Overall: Likely a 5-10 pt Romney win and above 300 electoral votes.
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