Biden Gets Only 24% In Dem Primary For ’24
Incredibly, President Joe Biden would now get only 24% of the vote in his own party primary in 2024 if he decides to run for re-election! Normally, of course, an incumbent president would be a shoo-in for his party’s renomination. None have ever sought re-nomination and been defeated.
Lyndon Johnson came close in 1968. He pulled out after winning the New Hampshire primary by a very close margin, but most experts agree he would have won re-nomination had he sought it. Only Jimmy Carter among Democratic presidents ever faced a serious primary challenge (1980 vs Ted Kennedy). And only Gerald Ford (unelected) has ever faced a challenge among Republicans Ronald Reagan (1976).
Biden, who insists he will run in 2024, would enter the race with 76% of his own party voting against re-nominating him or professing to be undecided about his candidacy.
The rest of the field tested by McLaughlin was:
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY IN ’24
• Biden = 24
• Michelle Obama = 16
• Harris = 13
• Buttigieg = 8
• AOC = 5
• Stacy Abrams = 4
• Klobuchar = 3
• Newsome = 2
• Beto O’Rourke = 2
• Cory Booker = 2
• Joe Manchin = 2
• Kristin Gillibrand = 1
• Hickenlooper = 1
• Kane = 1
• Undecided = 16
Despite the pull of an incumbent president in the field, 44% of Democratic primary voters would support another candidate and 16% are undecided.
This unprecedented weakness of a president speaks more eloquently of Biden’s failure than any measurement of job approval.
In a post-Biden world, the McLaughlin Poll indicates that Michelle Obama would be the front runner for the nomination although all indications are that she wants nothing to do with politics anymore.
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY FIELD WITHOUT BIDEN
• Michelle Obama = 23
• Harris = 22
• Pete Buttigieg = 8
• AOC = 5
• Amy Klobuchar = 5
• Stacey Abrams = 5
• Beto O’Rourke = 3
• Gavin Newsome = 3
• Cory Booker = 3
• Tom Steyer = 2
• Joe Manchin = 2
• John Hickenlooper = 1
• Tim Kane = 1
• Deval Patrick = 1
• Undecided = 16
Normally, a vice president would lead the pack in such a poll, but Harris’ weakness is notable as is the strength of newcomers, both women of color, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Stacey Abrams (each at 5%).
* This data is from a November 21, 2021 sample of 1,000 likely voters from McLaughlin and Associates.
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