Poll: Trump Neutralizes Abortion Among White Men And Women
A survey by NPR of 2300 young voters (18-40) shows that, despite Harris’ focus on the abortion issue, Trump has erased the gender gap among white men and women.
Gender gap, which has defined American politics for fifty years — ever since Roe — is fading away among young white voters.
The survey, conducted Sept 26-Oct 6, showed only a one point gender gap among whites. Harris got 43% of white men and 44% of white women.
So Harris’ campaign, with its efforts to break through with white women, using the abortion issue, is making no progress among whites.
There remains a gender gap among young blacks and Latinos.
Harris draws 56% of young Hispanic women and 44% of young Hispanic men — a gap of 12 points But the gender gap among young blacks is much narrower.
Harris wins young black women by 63% but wins young black men with only 58% of the vote — a gap of only 5 points.
Since Trump has only recently scored huge gains among Hispanic men, and their conversion is relatively new, the gender gap, though still there, seems to have affected more young Latino men than women.
But among black voters, where there has been less overall movement to Trump, the gap between men and women is narrower.
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America Moves Toward Consensus… Even On Abortion
You don’t hear the word consensus very often in American politics these days. But as the polls show Donald Trump moving up in these final weeks of the race, a consensus is indeed forming that he should be re-elected, perhaps the first consensus we have seen in a decade.
His upward momentum in the past two weeks is so broad and he is moving up among so many voters that consensus is the only word that describes what is going on.
But what is most interesting is how he has achieved this consensus. In our polarized politics, he is winning not so much because he is battering the Democrats into submission, finally winning the partisan debate that has sundered our country.
No, he is achieving consensus by triangulating on the thorniest issue in our politics: abortion.
We learned in the Clinton era that the candidate who can articulate the consensus that most voters feel, stepping over party lines, can prevail where partisan warfare fails.
In the 1990s, Democrats saw that saying “yes” to Republican proposals like welfare reform and a balanced budget without cutting entitlements, worked where saying “no” had not succeeded.
And so, this fall, Trump has found that triangulation on abortion is working where combat has failed. Politicians are good at handling “no” but when their political opponents start saying “yes”, they are dumbfounded.
As the autumn approached, Biden pulled out, and Harris was nominated, Republicans had grown concerned. Despite their advantage on the economy, immigration and crime, they could not put Kamala Harris away. She remained nipping at their heels, and the race seemed to settle into a nail biter.
Then, over the opposition of most of his own party, Trump triangulated. He pledged to veto a ban on abortion, backed in vitro fertilization, rejected a six week deadline for legal abortion and carved out exceptions to any abortion ban where the life of the mother was threatened or rape or incest was involved. And he deployed Melania to advocate women’s control of their own bodies.
His bright red posture on the issue began to look more like purple.
And the American people are responding. Trump began to seize leads in the popular vote and in most of the swing states. Democrats, totally invested in the abortion issue, felt the ground eroding under their feet.
Lamely, they fell back to saying Trump was lying and that, as soon as he won, the virulent pro-lifer Democrats feared would emerge and “turn the clock back.” But as Trump persisted in triangulating the issue, Harris lost ground and the momentum swung to Trump.
In the process,Trump looks like he has solved the biggest conundrum in our politics — how to find a center-right middle ground on abortion.
As this consensus gains ground, it looks like our most divisive issue has begun to moderate, creating a consensus on abortion.
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Dems Lead By 250K Votes In Early Penn Voting
Despite polls indicating that Trump has the momentum behind him with three weeks to go in the election, the Democrats have racked up a 250,000 lead in early voting in Pennsylvania.
628,785 voters in the state have voted early as of October 15th including 415, 248 Democrats but only 157,857 Republicans.
We can’t, of course, find out who the early votes were for until they are tallied on or after election day, but the fact that a quarter of a million more Democrats than Republicans have voted is bad news for the Trump campaign.
In the 2022 Senate race in Pennsylvania, the Republican candidate Dr. Oz entered election day trailing Democrat John Fetterman by more than 600,000 votes, making it almost impossible for Oz to catch up. Is history repeating itself?
While the Rasmussen Reports poll ofOctober 15th, has Trump winning Pennsylvania by 50-47, the Harris lead in early voting should set off alarm bells in the Trump HQ,
Republicans have been traumatized by the 2020 election where charges of fraud permeated the voting. Reluctant to trust their ballots to the mail or drop boxes, they appear to be waiting for election day to vote in person — or the polls are wrong and Harris is really winning.
Elsewhere, Republicans are holding their own — or better — in early voting. The GOP, for example, leads in Arizona by 10,000 votes and is ahead in Nevada by 1500 ballots.
In North Carolina, we do not know the party affiliation of a third of the early voters but Democrats lead by 10,000 votes among the early ballots but their lead has dwindled lately as more early votes come in.
But the Democratic margin among early Pennsylvania voters has not narrowed as more votes have come in. While the early voter lead does not necessarily foreshadow a Harris victory there, her early vote lead is ominous.
Pennsylvania Republicans need to get off their duffs and send in their ballots for Trump!
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Trump Vs. Bloomberg News On Tariffs
This week, Donald Trump had a revealing interview with Bloomberg’s editor-in-chief John Micklethwait.
They clashed over tariffs and their dialogue speaks volumes about how Trump’s views differ from the conventional economic wisdom.
Micklethwait argued that Trump’s planned new tariffs would “essentially halt trade with China” and blasted the former President’s plan to impose ten percent universal tariffs on Europe and Japan while raising them 100% on China.
Micklethwait said that Trump’s tariffs would force higher prices domestically, provoke sharp retaliation from Beijing, and alienate our closest allies.
Trump responded that the tariffs he imposed on China during his presidency did not kindle inflation and that US industries easily weathered the retaliatory tariffs China imposed.
Now the establishment, as personified by Micklethwait, now warns again of inflation and severe economic damage should Trump proceed to impose such big tariffs.
Like Yankee catcher Yogi Berra said “it’s deja vu all over again.”
But Trump is right.
American businesses are nimble enough to go outside China to feed their supply chains. China needs the U.S. too much to cripple our economy or even to make a dent.
Americans can easily cut back on their imports from China while Europeans and the Japanese can easily absorb a ten percent increase in tariffs.
Thinking of international trade as a zero sum game is outdated and flies in the face of the global response to Trump’s tariffs during his first term.
Morally, Trump rightly justifies the tariffs by noting that the rest of the world has been taking advantage of our generosity in racking up a $773 billion trade surplus with us last year and that it’s time now to even the score.
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TV Show: Trump’s Three New Cannons
As he enters the final month of the campaign, Trump has unveiled three new cannons to add to his artillery: Elon Musk, Robert Kennedy and Melania Trump.
Each has his or her own field of fire and all are well stocked with ammo that Trump can use to devastating effect.
Musk’s cannon are aimed at the free speech issue, a focus forced on both him and Trump by government censorship directed against them.
Musk, whose company has been banned from operating in Brazil, knows, well, the effect of government censorship, and repression. He campaigns for Trump, volubly and insistently, raising the banner of free speech, online and in person. In doing so, he makes a special appeal to Gen X voters who must overcome government and peer group censorship in their own lives.
It’s a new front in Trump’s war on the establishment. From the days, when the election of 2020 was effectively rigged by the suppression of the Hunter Biden laptop to the days when he was banned from Twitter, even while serving as President of the United States, Donald Trump has felt the heavy boot of censorship.
As he and Musk battle the deep state, they will make common cause for free speech.
Trump’s adversaries are used to fighting him over immigration, crime, and taxes, but free speech is a new issue, appealing to a new constituency,
Helpful as always, Hillary Clinton warns that repealing Section 230 of the Federal Communications Law would cause the government to “lose control” over social media. Exactly.
Robert Kennedy’s field of fire concerns health issues like overuse of fertilizers and pesticides and the perils of genetic engineering. These issues rightly obsess Gen Xers and have the potential to create the equivalent of the climate change issue for the Trump-Kennedy campaign. Particularly among young mothers, this cluster of issues lends a new dimension to the campaign against the deep state and its many manifestations.
Melania’s espousal of the “individual freedom and rights” of women to control of their own bodies, combined with her husband’s pledge to veto any abortion ban, is a third field of fire for the Trump campaign. The ambiguity of the Supreme Court’s decision replacing Roe v Wade leaves open many possible interpretations of the new law.
Melania affirmation of the basic right of women to sovereignty over their own bodies, gives a clear indication of Donald Trump’s personal priorities.
In every campaign, the question looms large: What are you going to do differently in the last two weeks.
This trio of Musk, Kennedy, and Melania provides a clear path for the end of the Trump campaign. Each brings his or her own constituency to the battle, and opens up a new front for Trump’s ubiquitous war on the deep state.
And Kamala Harris will have no answer.
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Reagan Vs. Carter Was Close In October, 1980 – And A Landslide Happened
If, in October of 1980, you had predicted that Reagan would defeat incumbent president Jimmy Carter in a landslide, you would have been met with the same derision I encounter in saying that Trump will decisively defeat Kamala Harris.
But despite polling that showed a very close race back then (On October 24, 1980, Gallup had Carter leading Reagan 45-42), Reagan won in a landslide. He beat Carter by 50-41 in the popular vote and 489-40 in the electoral college.
Landslides take time to build and they are by no means evident weeks before an election.
And so it is with Trump v Harris.
While the polls suggest a close race, the underlying data raises the possibility of a landslide. Trump wins all the issues. He is seen as better on the economy, immigration, inflation, crime and foreign affairs.
Even abortion, Harris’ strong suit, has been muted and muddled lately by Trump’s pledge to veto an abortion ban and by Melania’s courageous defense of “individual freedom” for American women.
Elon Musk’s ringing endorsement of free speech, after he was kicked out of Brazil for exercising it, injects a new issue into the campaign. Hillary Clinton warns that we “would lose control” if we permit unbridled free speech online. The Democrat’s low tolerance for disagreement with their party line and their advocacy (and practice) of speech suppression makes the issue a natural one for Trump.
Assuming he is now free of gag orders imposed by Democratic courts, he can now pound the free speech issue and make the election a referendum on the First Amendment.
Add these new issues to Biden’s and Harris’ neglect of Hurricane Helene’s victims and their arrogant offer of $750 to families that have lost everything, and you have a Marie Antoinette moment (let them eat cake) shaping up in November.
And with a hot war between Israel and Iran during which the Biden-Harris administration will have to defend their lifting of oil sanctions on Iran — enabling Teheran’s support of terrorism, and the most logical conclusion is a massive Trump victory.
And that is my prediction.
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Trump Commits To Veto Abortion Ban
Dems lose their abortion edge.
On a day dominated by JD Vance’s lopsided debate victory over Tim Walz, Trump announced that he would veto a national abortion ban if it were to be passed by Congress and make it to his desk.
That is the coup de grâce for the Harris campaign.
Harris has been running on the abortion issue, conjuring up fears that Trump, once he’s re-elected, would agree with the right wing of his Party and sign a national abortion ban. The former president has danced around the issue in the past, arguing that no such bill could ever pass in the current environment so the question of what he would do if it did, was academic.
But now Trump has firmly and finally committed to a veto such legislation were it to make its way to his desk.
As is fitting over Halloween, Democrats have told ghost stories that Trump would kill the right to choose abortion with a stroke of his pen.
Now, that issue has been laid to rest.
The Harris people will still peddle horror stories about women who died while crossing state lines to find an abortion clinic, but the real issue — a national ban — is over.
Abortion should be over as an issue anyway.
In the year after the Court overturned Roe v. Wade, there were over a million abortions performed in America. Half were medical via the morning after pill that nobody wants to ban and 130,000 pregnant women crossed state lines to go to a state that allowed abortions. (Usually, only a bus fare away).
The idea that Trump would ban abortion is pure fantasy and has now been disproven.
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Harris’ Blue Wall Is Cracking
The ice in Kamala Harris’ vaunted blue wall states — Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania — is cracking. The evidence is there in the New York Times/Siena College Polls.
- The cracks began in Georgia where Trump went from a five point deficit to a five point lead.
- Then they spread to Arizona, where a four point Harris lead collapsed into a four point Trump lead.
- Now, cracks are emerging in the blue wall states. The Times reports that Michigan and Wisconsin, where Harris had September leads of four to five in each state, now are dead even tossups.
- Pennsylvania, still dead even, cannot be far behind.
The cracking of the Harris candidacy is due to:
- Her ads that try to blame Trump for the border crisis and just waste her money as she tries to knock on Trump’s strongest door.
- Her front-runner strategy of ducking interviews and press conferences while Trump practically devours any camera he sees.
- Her vacuous answers on the economy, endlessly repeating her canned line that she “grew up in a middle class home.”
- The bloom on the rose of her August launch is largely now gone and America can see that the Empress has no clothes.
The truth about this woman who flunked the California Bar (she passed on the second try) is dawning on people: She’s not that bright and there is no there there.
She lacks the intellectual ability to pivot and adjust once her well rehearsed script has to change.
Once the blue wall melts, Trump’s vote totals will likely soar. This may not be a close race after all.
Look for the former president to carry all the swing states — and to win or close the gap in Virginia and Minnesota (despite Walz), and a host of unlikely states.
The laggard Republican Senate candidates, now running well behind their former president will move into contention and some will doubtless win.
Republicans will supplement their in-the-pocket pick up in West Virginia with an increasingly likely win in Montana. Ohio, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin will be in play. And the GOP leads in the House will become apparent.
New York’s Congressman Mike Lawler, who squeaked to victory by one point in 2022, is leading and Trump is carrying his district.
The chance for a really big Republican landslide is increasing. There is nothing the Harris campaign can do with their limited-ability candidate.
A smile only goes so far.
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Vance Needs To Hold Walz Accountable On China
In the upcoming vice presidential debate, I hope JD Vance holds Walz accountable for his connections to the Chinese Communist Party.
Walz has had a long-standing relationship with China.
He even chose his wedding date to coincide with the anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre and regularly opposes trade sanctions on China.
As governor of Minnesota, Walz opposed tariffs that are a key component of America’s defense against China’s economic aggression and called on President Trump to “end the trade war with China.”
In Walz’s world view, “There’s just no substitute for 1.6 billion consumers, who are hungry, to get our China trade negotiations normalized. There’s not enough market in the rest of the world to absorb our capacity.”
The Chinese are well known for recruiting mid-level U.S. politicians and showering them with contracts and favors.
Walz earned his living over the years by shepherding students and tourists on propaganda trips to China. He was paid by Beijing but he won’t reveal how much. He taught for a year in China.
Vance needs to make the China connection the centerpiece of his critique of Walz.
He could be a real life Manchurian Candidate set upon us to take over our country.
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Why Polls That Show Trump Down Are Wrong
Based on info provided by John McLaughlin.
Look at the bad record of the RealClearPolitics average in previous elections:
In 2016, the RealClearPolitics average of national polls had Hillary beating Trump by 46 (Hillary) v. 43 (Trump) in September.
By October, Hillary had opened up an 8 point lead in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls 49-42.
- On 11/6/16 NBC/SM had Clinton leading 51-44
- On 10/16/16 CBS had Clinton winning 51-40
In 2020, it was the same story: Polls skewed against Trump.
- On 11/2 Eonomist/YouGov had Biden leading 53-43
- On 10/31 NBC had Biden winning 52-42
2020 RCP average of national polls
- 9/23/16 Biden 50 Trump 42.9
- 10/11 Biden 52.1 Trump 41.8
Regardless of the polls, Biden was awarded the presidency in the most controversial election in American history by a razor thin margin of 44,000 votes in 3 states out of a record 160 million votes.
The Democrats use the media biased polls to help our opponent fundraise, and try to suppress our voters.
We can’t let them do it again this year.
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