Abortion Decision Has No Impact On GOP Chances In Fall Elections
A comparison of polling before and after the May 3, 2022, leak of the Alito opinion striking down Roe v. Wade shows no increase in Democratic fortunes in the coming Congressional elections.
Comparing the “generic ballot” question on media polls before and after the leak, the Republicans still seem to hold a decisive advantage. Asked which party they would support in the coming elections in their own districts, voters still indicate a preference for Republicans.
Of four media companies that polled right before and right after the decision leaked, three actually showed Republican gains while one showed a modest Democratic pick up of only one point.
CNN, for example, surveyed the electorate on May 3-5 and found that 49% said they would likely back the Republican in their district while 42% opted for the Democrat, a GOP margin of 7 points. This finding compares with a Republican edge of only 1 point in their previous poll on April 28-May 1, before the decision leaked.
Monmouth Poll showed similar results. On March 10-14, 2022, they had a tie in the generic ballot for Congress, but, by May 5-9, the GOP advantage had swelled to seven points.
A third polling firm, Politico, showed a Democratic edge on the generic ballot of two points in a post-leak survey on May 6-9, 2022 compared with a one point edge on April 22-25 before the leak.
A fourth poll, this one by UGov, showed a Democratic lead in the generic ballot fading from 5 points on April 16th to only 2 points on May 8-10.
Republicans think that the new abortion decision will help them given the strength of pro-life voters while Democrats are pinning their midterm hopes on a pro-choice backlash.
So far, Advantage GOP.
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