Why Mitt Will Win
Published on TheHill.com on September 11, 2012
Now that both conventions are over, the dimensions of the likely Romney triumph are becoming clear. Both through an analysis of the polling and an examination of the rhetoric, the parameters of the victory are emerging.
Start with the polling. It appears that the bulk of the Obama post-convention bounce has been in blue states where his left-oriented convention stirred up the enthusiasm of an already committed group of voters. Among likely voters identified in the Washington Post poll — taken after the conventions — Obama holds a slim, 1-point edge. And an analysis of Rasmussen’s state-by-state likely-voter data indicates a tie in the battleground states (according to Breitbart).
But it’s not really a tie at all. All pollsters are using 2008 models of voter turnout. Some are combining ’04 and ’08 but skewing their samples to ’08 numbers. African-Americans cast 11 percent of the national vote in ’04, but their participation swelled to 13 percent in ’08. These 2 million new black voters backed Obama overwhelmingly. Will they come out in such numbers again? Will college and under-30 voters do so as well? Will Latino turnout be at historic highs? All these questions have to be answered in the affirmative for the polling samples so widely published to be accurate.
For example, when a poll shows an Obama lead among likely voters of, say, 47 percent to 45, it is based on an assumption that blacks will cast 13 percent of the vote. But the lack of enthusiasm among Obama’s base for his candidacy and their doubts about the economy make an 11 percent black turnout more likely. In this event, Romney would actually win 46 percent to 45.
And then there is the enthusiasm gap. All recent polling suggests that Republican and GOP-leaning independents are 13 points more enthusiastic and following the race more closely than their Democratic counterparts. If the grass roots do their job, this will yield a stronger Romney vote.
Finally, when every poll among every sample has Obama below 50 percent of the vote, it is most likely that the undecideds have, in fact, decided not to back his reelection.
But to crawl out of the statistical weeds, let’s examine the state of the partisan dialogue. Former President Clinton made a huge blunder when he accepted the Republican challenge and flatly — and loudly — asserted that we are, in fact, better off than we were four years ago. Polls show that only about 33 percent of voters agree while close to half do not see the world that way.
Finally, both parties seemed happy to embrace the same formulation of the difference between them. Both agreed that the Republican Party is based on a philosophy of individual responsibility. Obama articulated it as “you’re on your own.” Republicans put it differently: “We’ll get government off your back.” Democrats said theirs was a party that would lend you a hand.
Gallup measured these two options and voters chose “leave me alone” over “lend me a hand” by 54 percent to 35.
Over the long haul, these are the questions that will dominate voting intentions. The function of the conventions is to formulate and articulate each party’s view of the world. The fact that they were so similar and that each was willing to trust its fate to the question of “Are you better off?” means that the Romney message will have a very strong advantage. The decision by the Democrats to embrace this choice and not to move to the center will make it impossible for them either to reelect their president or to command a majority in the new Senate.
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