WHO GOT THE CAIN VOTE?
Everyone. In Iowa, the polling shows that Cain’s vote was almost evenly divided among Gingrich, Romney, Bachmann, and Perry.
According to Realclearpolitics.com, the three surveys prior to Cain’s withdrawal had Gingrich at 26. The four after had him at 31 — a 4 point gain. Romney before had 15. Now he has 18 — a 3 point gain. Bachmann went from 8 to 12 — a 4 point gain. And Perry’s support grew from 7 to 10 — a 3 point rise. Ron Paul’s vote, meanwhile, dropped from 18 to 17.
This fracturing of the Cain vote may make it harder for Michele Bachmann to climb back into the race. Her appeal to the Tea Party vote was second only to Cain’s. But Herman pulled out at the same time as Newt was surging and Romney and Perry started to advertise, so Bachmann realized no net gain.
In Iowa, organization counts. But enthusiasm counts for more. So Newt’s lead is real and likely sustainable.
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