Gallup Explains Why Other Polls Are Wrong
In a large sample, very important survey, Gallup reported on Friday that the likely 2012 electorate will be among the most Republican in history.
In 2008, 12 percent more self-described Democrats voted than Republicans (54-42). In 2004, the electorate was 48-48 evenly split between the parties. In Gallup’s poll, they found that in 2012 it will be 46-49 for the Republicans — a fifteen point swing from 2008!
The reason most other polls are wrong is that, seeing this Republican surge, they discount it as sampling error in their polls and re-weight the data to make it conform to the traditional partisan divisions, thus obliterating the real trend and obscuring what is actually going on.
The fact is that the country has moved sharply in the direction of the Republican Party since 2008 and even since 2010.
Want to know how much Romney will win by?
Obama won by 7 points in 2008. But the electorate has become 15 points more Republican since then. Do the math — an 8 point Romney victory! OK, maybe 5 or 6 or 7, but no cliffhanger.
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